I’ll admit it, I am not a whiz with numbers, but I enjoying using them when it comes to FPL to indicate value for player potential. There are a wide range of metrics that fantasy managers use when examining data as it relates to price, points, minutes and matches. Last season, xG (expected goals) and xA (expected assists) appeared to become mainstream when looking at potential attacking returns. xG represents “the number of goals that can be expected to be scored based on where and how a shot was taken.”
More recently I have seen xFPL and VORP introduced this FPL season in order to bring more clarity when it comes to “prospecting the prospects” as Who Got the Assist would say. If you haven’t read @fplkernow, his xFPL article can be found at PlanetFPL, titled Introducing xFPLpts with @fpllkernow. Over on Academica Vertex, FPL_Scientist has provided his insight into VORP or Value Over Replacement Player in his article, VORP and It’s FPL Applications.
Using data from the Fantasy Premier League, FPL Stats and WhoScored, I put together a small spreadsheet that provides four different metrics when using FPL data to help assist in your team building process. None of this information is new, much of the detail for each metric I found on Reddit r/FantasyPL from u/HappyGrinch.
The metrics not covered in this article are:
- PP90 (Points scored per 90 minutes)
- PPM (Points scored per match)
- PPMM (Points scored per match per million)
None of this is rocket science, as you break down the statistics to present the results in various formats, which could potentially help fantasy managers draw their own conclusions. He does introduce a metric called, Value Added per Million (VAPM), which uses ‘(PPM-2)/price’ to give you a value for each individual player. Compare that to xFPLfrom @kernow and VORP from FPL_Scientist. What do deduce from all the numbers?
From the example included in the 2018 FPL Metrics Spreadsheet (zip file) you can review the metrics worksheet. Scoring 2400 points on season would give you a top 50 finish, based on 2017/18 data from Fantasy Football Fix. In order to achieve that final score, your squad would need to average 63/PPW, not an easy task.
Based on last season’s statistics, top 50 captain choices totaled 261 points. Subtract your captain’s overall points from your goal, 2400 points. This leaves you with 2139 points. FPL is played based on 38 gameweeks, but we bump that to 40, to account for DGWs and points from your chips. This number is now used to divide into 2139, leaving you with 53.4 or 53/PPW
In order to gain a more realistic number, we need to remove the 2-points per player (total of 22 points), for playing a minimum of 60 minutes. This will diminish the value of a substitute who comes on for a 1-points appearance.
Take 53 and subtract 22 points leaving us with 31 additional points per week to achieve your goal of 2400 points on the season. We’re almost done…
Now you need to figure in the price of you bench players, on average it’s 18.5 million (1 – 5.0 player, 2 – 4.5 players and 1 – 4.0 keeper for a total of 18.5). This gives you a starting XI total price of 81.5. Divide 31/18.5, which gives you 0.38 VAPM.
Based on the spreadsheet I create, using information from u/HappyGrinch, you can draw your own conclusions as how to achieve a 0.38 per million invested to reach your goal. From the Reddit thread:
As a fantasy manager you need to draw your own conclusions, as it’s YOUR team, YOU make the decisions. This data included in this article, isn’t mine, nor do I claim responsibility for it. I haven’t seen any references for it on Twitter since the FPL launched. I felt it was imperative to managers in their preparation for the start of the season. Cheers!