PITCH & PINT – EPISODE 12: Miracle at Molineux
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Episode 13 of Pitch & Pint Podcast being recorded Tuesday, October 23, Miracle at Molineux!
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Hello and welcome to episode 13 of Pitch & Pint. My name is Stephen, you can find me @6thGoal on Twitter. The question is asked time and time again on Twitter. Which way was does your support swing, your club or your FPL team?
For those who follow me, it’s no surprise I am pretty passionate about Watford, more so this season than last season. That, for a number of reasons. First, I am providing weekly articles for James and Suj at Planet #FPL. Second, I am part of 90maat.com, providing weekly previews and reviews that feature the Hornets.
I do what I can to keep the FPL Twitter community updated on the happenings from Vicarage Road. While the Golden Boys started off amazingly well this season, going 4-0, sitting in 4th overall, the wheels seemed to fall off the last 4 weeks.
Now, the Hornets didn’t necessarily play bad in a draw to Fulham or the loss to Arsenal. They showed resiliency in the league cup, when Christian Kabasele went off with a red card and ended up drawing 2-2 against Spurs at the end of regulation time, only to lose in the shoot out.
If you were to tell me ahead of the season, after 9 weeks we would be 7th in the league table, I probably would have called you crazy. Yet, we saw something today from the Golden Boys we didn’t see under the tenure of Marco Silva.
Change. Javi Gracia, after starting the same lineup for 6 weeks was forced into personnel changes due to injury, losing Daryl Janmaat. While the Hornets still showed passion and commitment the following two weeks, this was an all new look against Wolves in game week 9.
Troy Deeney didn’t travel and Andre Gray started on the bench, replaced by Gerard Deulofeu and Issac Success, both getting their first starts on the season. Deulofeu popped in for a 16′ cameo 2 weeks ago in a loss to Bournemouth.
Success had featured in 7 out of 8 games, usually later in the match, spelling Gray, bringing, power and pace up front in the Hornets attack. During the international break, Success scored for Nigeria. His start, well deserved.
What I found more interesting, the fact that Will Hughes started on the right flank for the 9th week in a row. Now the dynamics this week were very interesting.
Roberto Pereyra took his place on the left flank, with Deulofeu in a similar position up top, in what appeared to be overloading that left flank when attacking. Hughes, as expected gravitated into the middle of the pitch, leaving Kiko Femenia to manage the lesser used right flank for much of the game.
It was interesting to watch, lots of good triangles on the pitch with quick, controlled passes, led by the man of the match, Etienne Ca-POW, as he hit for Watford first goal, on a blazing shot that went through Conor Coady’s legs, freezing Rui Patricio and giving the Golden Boys a well-deserved 1-0 lead.
Just a minute later, before Wolves had chance to regroup, it was Pereyra with a jiggy little flick over the shoulder of a sprawling Patricio to give the Hornets all they would need and go on and knock Wolves back into reality with a 2-0 at Molineux.
Ask me today if I would have any Watford players on my squad, the answer is still no. However, quite a few are making my watch list, including Pereyra, who’s dropped in price to 6.2, as he scored an odd away goal on Saturday.
The dynamics up front are going to be intersting, I liked the pairing of Deulofeu and Success, but feel Deulofeu is better on the right flank. It was interesting to see him and Pereyra doing they stuff close in, which seemed to leave lots of open space in the middle that Watford couldn’t capitalize on. At 5.4, I do have Deulofeu on my list as well, he’s still regaining match shape, so it was no surprise to see him pulled near the end of the game.
Defensively, this was Watford’s second CS on the season and honestly, Ben Foster didn’t work very hard, making one save on the day. At 4.5, Watford have a good run of 3 games, but then get Liverpool and City in two of the next 3 games. I still look past him and the other defensive assets right now. Twist my arm, I’ll give you Femenia at 4.2 as an alternative.
I do like their next 3 games, home to Huddersfield, away to Newcastle and away to So’ton. Three MUST WIN games away of a challenging four game stretch into December.
(4:20) GAMEWEEK 12 BEER OF THE WEEK
Before I get too deep in the FPL discussion, let’s pour our first GW10 Beer of the Week, out of San Diego, a place I will forever call home.
This week, it’s a beer that I have seen some of the lads in the hashtag FPL Beer Club find over in the UK. The beer, Grapefruit Solis, from Mike Hess Brewing – Miramar, just north of downtown San Diego.
A bit of history about Mike Hess and how the brewing got started.
In late 2009, as Mike Hess was in the process of relocating his financial services to a light industrial area near Miramar Naval Air Station. Think Top Gun, virtually right across the street.
Several months later an article appeared about the concept of a nano brewery.
The term “nano brewery” may be a recent addition to the craft brewing lexicon, but the concept of small breweries with a pint-sized brewlength is nothing new. The most-widely accepted description of nano breweries is a brewery that produces in batches of three barrels or smaller.
The location as Hess found out was zoned properly for a brewery. After frustration set in, unable to find information on how to build a nano, he took it upon himself, led him to writing the Hess Brewing Odyssey, which chronicled the startup processes and steps needed to open the operation.
In July 2010, Mike Hess opened to the public, which was a huge success, so much so they had to close for the next 2 weeks to replenish!
It’s now 2018 and they’ve grown to become ~the 11th largest of the San Diego brewers. And whereas there were only 32 other breweries when we opened in 2010 (we were #33), there are now more than 150 operating breweries here!
Mike Hess now distributes to almost all of California, Colorado and Arizona.
They package 8 beers in cans year-round and still operate the small brewhouse in Miramar, but now production is in our flagship North Park location, on a 30-barrel NSI system with 750 barrels of fermentation space.
A lot has changed, but not the reputation of our beers. We still make Great Beer. No Exceptions.
As described on the Mike Hess site the, “Grapefruit Solis kicks it up a notch by taking an awesome San Diego–style IPA and pumping it full of citrusy grapefruit—we’re talking real fruit, zest and juice. The hops complement the zestiness, and the subtle malt makes this an award-winning, crisp, and deliciously refreshing India pale ale.”
This was my first foray into Mike Hess, a beer as I tout THE BEST in San Diego! That’s huge accolades, but then, I am just a guy with a 30 Second Beer Review on Twitter.
The Mike Hess Grapefruit Solis is my “go to beer.” If I had to go to Tots Wine and pick up one beer, this would be the beer.
Let’s crack open this wide mouth can, as Mike Hess calls it, the #openmike can.
While it’s recommended to drink this beer from the can, hence the openmike top, this beer pours a deep, golden orange with a light white head that quickly dissipated but leaves some good, wispy lacing down the glass.
The nose on the Grapefruit Solis is amazing! Big and bold with a deep and rich grapefruit and citrus aroma with a smattering of hops and a hint of lemon zest.
The taste. If the smell wasn’t enough, let’s had a taste.
The taste follows the nose as grapefruit and citrus explode on the palette. The hop profile fits the bill with a touch of malt that gives it just enough sweetness. The beer finishes dry with a light grassiness and has good carbonation.
On a side note, Mike Hess just opened a tasting room in Walnut Creek, which is about 20 minutes from where I live and on my way home.
Been there once, about a week after it open. It was better on tap that out of the can. Picked up small flight of 5 beers, along with a Mike Hess poker chip that got me a $4 pint (3 quid) and a few Mike Hess pint glass that can be used anytime for $4 pints. Great place, hopefully I have more opportunities to get there and enjoy.
Let’s get back into some FPL.
(7:38) FPL OPINIONS
Now with beer poured and Hornets talk out of the way, let’s get on to the week at hand. I made the decision to work overtime today, so my viewing was limited. I caught part of the second half of the Chelsea v Man United game.
Gotta admit, that coach for Chelsea, what a cock! I don’t give a fuck who you are or how excited you get, it’s a poor sign of sportsmanship to knowingly run in front of the opposing team, especially a Jose Mourinho team and do what you did. Would love to see Chelsea fine you for your fucking antics.
That said, many managers are down on Marcus Alonso. Hmm, interesting, I remember many managers being down on a guy named Mo Salah too.
At 7.0 million, he’s the highest priced defender, leading the FPL at that position with 61 points. However, with no attacking returns and just 2 clean sheets, since game week 5 and managers are losing patience.
Based on the stats, he’s still punch at his weight, when compared to the rest of the FPL defenders. He leads in mins (450), second to James Morrison (18) in penalty touches (15), top with 1 goal, goal attempts (11) chances inside the box (5) and shots on target (2).
Many managers are looking elsewhere to save some money and invest in other defender, who have that same makeup as Alonso. Andrew Robertson, at 6.3 is one, as is Matt Doherty, playing well above his price of 4.8.
In the end, we know where Alonso will end up, if not top in FPL for defenders, in the top 3. Robertson and Ben Mendy are two who could rival the Chelsea man for top honors this season.
Mendy, at 6.2 started for the first time in 4 weeks against Burley and posted 3 chances created, while picking up an assist. However, Mendy in his advanced role hasn’t picked up a goal this season, but now has 6 assists!
Alonso is the cornerstone of my defense, while I didn’t starthe season with him, I have no intentions of moving him and chasing points. We all know Chelsea will be there in the end, can play with any Premier League team and Alonso can return points against anyone.
Fantasy managers are correct on one points. Through the first 4 game weeks, Alonso had better statistics, but a heat map indicates he is still in a very advanced role down the left flank.Chelsea are away to Burnley, home to Palace and Everton ahead of the next international break.
My move of the week, dropping Kyle Walker, who was in fact dropped by Pep, as he returned from international duty with a knock, as I picked Mendy back up. Walker was brought in immediately, as I didn’t want to lose his price and give me a one for one transfer to get Mendy back in, when fit. It was a late change on Friday, but it paid off, as Mendy picked up 10 points on the day!
He is another defender I won’t drop unless he’s hit by injury. City are away to Spurs, home to So’ton and Man United in the next 3 games. The derby in GW12 could be interesting, based on United’s performance today.
Let’s shift gears, as I jump around the Premier League. Wolves, riding high ahead of their GW9 fixture, home to Watford. After their 1-0 win at Selhurst, Wolves were as high as 7th in the table.
What does Saturday’s loss, at home to Watford do to them? They suffered their first home defeat and didn’t score for just the second time this season.
Rui Patricio saw 136k new managers, while Matt Doherty picked up 523k for the game week. Big numbers from two of Wolves, but what does this lose mean?
Not much concern away to Brighton next week, but the Spurs and Arsenal could cause problem for Wolves, who did draw against both City and United 1-1, then its Huddersfield and Cardiff.
While I wouldn’t be buying Wolves now, I wouldn’t consider dropping any of their assets either. It was the first game in 4 weeks that Patricio didn’t register at least 4 saves, only making one against Watford.
I will be curious to see how they bounce back this coming week.
With managers frustrated owning Sergio Aguero, not so much his goal output, but on Saturday with his misses. While I didn’t see the game or highlights, I understand he could have been on 4 goals before the break. For the game, he had 6 goal attempts, 5 inside the box and 4 big chances taken, yet walked away with just a single goal in 66 minutes of action.
On Twitter, you might follow Adam Hopcroft. Like the stats I just noted, Adam says “Aguero is going nowhere even if he persists to play 60-70 minutes every week. His xG of 1.81 could be the highest achieved by any player in a single game week this season – will need to check (Aguero vs HUD was 1.58).
Some fantasy managers are fed up with Kun and looking to offload the Argentine and bolster the midfield, which would result in cheaper front line.
Even moving from Aguero to the likes of Lacazette would save 1.6. Some managers are looking at downgrading to the likes of a Arnautovic, Wilson and even Jimenez, which could result in an even bigger savings.
During the international break I had considering dropping Aguero for the likes of Murray or even Issac Success to fund a move to get Eden Hazard and KDB in the midfield alongside Salah. Aguero has attacking returns in 6 of the last 7 games but much like Salah managers don’t feel they are getting the most for their money with these premium priced players.
Hazard was transferred in by 361k managers last week and offered no attacking returns for just the second week all season. Viable? Yeah, some credit to Man United, that’s always a tough fixture.
Aside from Spurs in GW13 and Man City in GW16, Chelsea have some excellent fixture through mid-January. Hazard is statistically solid over the last 4 game weeks, 31 penalties touches behind Sterling, Salah and Sane, 2 goals, which is one off the pace. His 13 goal attempts are 3 off the leader with 16 and 11 shots inside the box is tops.
KDB at 9.7 is back from injury and sported 32 minutes against Burnley when he came on in place of Bernardo Silva. No surprise his stats were nearly non-existent, but managers are ready to jump on him. He’s been brought in by 41k managers.
I would continue to watch FPL Statistics and monitor his ownership before bringing him in. With 39 assists over the last 2 seasons, we know what he can do on the pitch and will only improve an already lethal City team. However, they are away to Spurs and home to United, with So’ton between the two games. I am more inclined to wait for the derby or West Ham in GW13 but could be forced into an earlier move if his price is set to rise.
I am ready to move my Spurs assets on. Thankfully I never followed through with the Kane move for a 2-week period, but stuck with Lucas Moura, who saw a price decrease of 0.1, down to 7.3, which isn’t what I needed. He is going to be used to help fund a move to Hazard or KDB.
Spurs seemingly have a challenging set of fixtures in their next 5 game weeks. After those games, I might reconsider them, as GW15 through 27 looks great! So, no Kane, Son, Alli or Eriksen and Moura makes way…for now.
A more recent dilemma I am facing, what to do with Ederson? Now that should even be a discussion. Ederson, at 5.7 is the top GK in the league on 49 points. City with a tough run in two of the next 3 games away to Spurs, home to United but get the likes of West Ham, Bournemouth, Watford head of Chelsea in 16. Still a good and favorable run.
I’ve made 0.1 on him to date and expect City will finish the season with the most clean sheets. The set and forget keeper has paid off in this situation. But I can’t help noticing Mat Ryan and Lukasz Fabianski. Each are 4.5 and their fixtures are good.
In fact, you could add Ben Foster to the mix if you were to go look at two 4.5 keepers over the next 7-10 game weeks. Newcastle would have been included, but Martin Dubravka is priced at 5.0.
Ryan has picked up 2 CS in his last 2 games, totaling 20 points, on the back of 10 saves and 5 bonus points. He’s been the total saves man over the last 4 weeks with a total of 21, registering an 84% save rate.
Let’s take a quick break from the FPL discussion and “learn about hops.”
(15:34) BEER NEWS – Hops 101
Before I really got into craft beer, I was more less a big beer, lager and pilsner guy. I knew no better, it was how many beers could we get for the cheapest price. I am sure I wasn’t alone.
It was the early 90’s, I returned home from college, since Provo, Utah was pretty fucking dry when I was there. I recall joining my dad at his country club after a round of golf and was introduced to Sam Adams and Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. Thus, started my venture into craft beer. Especially Sierra Nevada, which had that big hop flavor, which is now a West Coast trademark in craft beer.
I consider myself a “hop-head” and enjoy a bitter beer that has big citrus and tropical aromas, along with that resinous, dank and pine associated with hops. It’s rather amazing the flavors that come out of hops.
Hops are used for three distinct purposes in brewing: for bittering, for flavoring, and for aroma.
Once the wort is created (that’s the liquid extract from the mash process, which contains the sugars that will be fermented), the sweet liquid is transferred to a kettle where it’s brought to a boil.
Once the liquid is boiling, a brewer will include a hop addition. These hops, added first, are for creating bitterness in the beer and called bittering hops. While “bitterness” on its own doesn’t always sound so appealing, it’s critical in creating nearly every kind of beer.
We notice the bitterness of IPAs and pale ales the most because those are characteristics beer drinkers like front and center in those styles, but even the maltiest beers (stouts, porters, barley wines, browns) need the right balance of hop bitterness to prevent them from tasting flat, sweet, and boring, like watery maple syrup.
Bittering hops are usually high in alpha acids, the principal components in lupulin, the resin of the hop cone. These hops do not contribute aroma or flavor to your beer, just bitterness.
Depending on the brewing instructions and style of beer you are brewing, you could have flavoring hops, which happen at specific intervals when you are brewing. To capture the essential oils from the hops, these flavoring hops are usually added near the end of the boil. These oils produce a distinctive flavor for beer.
Finally, you have aroma hops, which are added after the wort has cooled down and fermentation is completed. Dry hopping is the method of adding hops to the fermentation vessel, which will give your beer a big aroma.
The last beer I brewed, Switch 61 Cranked and Clamped was double dry hopped with 8 oz of Mosaic hops. The aroma of this beer was outstanding!
If you’ve watched any of my 30 Second Beer reviews, I mentions the hops that are used to create the beer I am reviewing.
To keep this section shorts, let’s generalize.
AMARILLO, CASCADE, CENTENNIAL, GALAXY, SUMMIT, HULL MELON, AND CITRA
These are some of the favored hops for imparting big floral, fruity, tropical, grassy, and citrus flavors and aromas.
CHINOOK, SIMCOE, COMET, EUREKA, MOSAIC
These hops tend to lend piney, woody, and grassy notes (though Mosaic is commonly used for single-hop beers because it also has great citrus and floral qualities)
CRYSTAL, HALLERTAU, LIBERTY, NUGGET, SAAZ
These are some of the more “Old World” style hops; they’re spicy, fruity, and earthy; classically used more in German lagers and similar styles.
Currently, there are about 80 different hop varieties that are commercially available. Here in the United States the “C” hop still reigns supreme:
Cascade, Centenntial, Chinook and Citra are the top hops, followed by Galaxy, Mosaic and Wilamette.
Let’s get back to some FPL opinions and look at my squad.
(19:03) FPL OPINIONS (continued)
Game week 9 was better than most. While 60 is my weekly target, I finished the week on 58 points, which is a fine finish, compared to many other FPL managers. The average for the week was 43. It was another green arrow up to 341k. Again, slow and steady is my mantra this season and I continue to make good progress.
This is the 4th green arrow in 5 weeks, which sees my overall rank up 272k places from the previous week. What I haven’t seen this season a big week. Even one that scores me 75-80 points. Captain selections have been good, hitting 8 out of 9, failing last week with Salah, but Aguero didn’t fare any better. It’s been average returns for my captain selections, nothing like the 40 pointer from Hazard earlier in the season, 16, 18, 16, 12, 14, 16, 16, 2 and 16. As is usually the case, my team goes the way of my captain.
Game week 4 was my lowest output of the season, just 45 points, even though the captain returned 12 points. At 24.09% of my overall score, I won’t be too concerned at with the success my captain selections have been having.
Another area that has benefitted me, transfers, as I have made 6 on the season and netted 24 points. This week was huge, as well as lucky. Decided to move Kyle Walker out for Ben Mendy in, a swing of 10 points!
Looking at PPG stats, I am willing to put my defense up against any other. 199 points on the season with 24 clean sheets, playing at a 6.22 PPG clip. Not bad, right?
It’s been Alonso, Mendy and Robertson with appearances from Wan-Bissaka, Bennett and Walker helping me to that score.
But it’s the midfield that has failed. Just 117 points, averaging 3.34 PPG. By way of comparison, looking at the world #1, his midfield has scored 211 points or 6.59 PPG, with Hazard being the differential.
While I haven’t hoped the Hazard Express, I am still ride high on the potential that Salah carries. All fantasy managers know he is a game changer, much like Hazard, much like Aguero. We saw it all last season, just how quickly Salah could steal the show and be the centerpiece of the Liverpool offense.
Right now, and over the last 6 weeks, it’s been slim pickings. He’s returned just 2 goals over the last 6 games compared to Hazard who’s netted 6 goals and 1 assist.
Now with Hazard complaining of back pains, it will be interesting to see if he or is limited in the next few games, if the pain flares, as Chelsea are away to Burnley and home to Palace. With none of their forwards hitting, Hazard has been their offense.
Salah on the other hand is home to Cardiff this week and has Fulham at Craven Cottage in 3 weeks with an away trip to Arsenal in between. While I am still seeking a way to added Hazard, until we know the back is no longer a bother, I will continue to have patience with Salah.
Moving forward, I have some short term moves and some longer terms plans. While I am looking ahead to December, the immediate concern are the next 3 weeks, as we head into yet ANOTHER international break.
Using both free transfers last week, I have just the one, but numerous squad problems to contend with. Ryan Fraser, Lucas Moura and Theo Walcott. I could convince myself to hold Weeman through GW15, as the Cherries are away to Fulham, away to Newcastle and home to Huddersfield, but also have United, Arsenal and City. At his currently price, I can still make Hazard happen in two moves, but won’t take a -4 to make it happen this week.
Moura has been a disappointment, scoring just 9 points after transferring out Mkhitaryan. Those games, Huddersfield, Cardiff and West Ham, not Premier League juggernauts. Spurs host City this week, in what will probably be a 4-3 or 3-2 game with Kane and Aguero going head to head. Right?
I could tell myself to hold Moura, as their fixtures improve starting in GW15, but that could be too long, especially at 7.3 million and not returning any attacking points. He’s also part of my plan to bring Hazard in.
Not sold on Everton, never have been since Marco Silva took the job. Thought he was a good manager, but I was wrong. While the Toffees offense has looked better with the attacking ability of Lucas Digne and Glyfi Sigurdsson getting back on track, I can’t make any compelling argument to keep Theo Walcott, which is what I have been doing up to this point in the season.
He’s scored just 6 points in the 3 weeks he’s been in my squad, which equates to nothing less than a FAILURE! I can get that sort of production from Philip Billing at 4.5!
Returning to Bournemouth, I made the snap decision to bring Wilson in, on the back of 2 good fixtures, in 9 and 10, but I am not sure Wilson will retain a spot in my squad. He’s priced at 6.4, averaging 5.6 PPG with a VAPM (or value added per minute) of 0.56, which is the BEST of all the forwards in FPL.
Impressive, as he’s got 3 goals and 7 assists on the season and the Cherries play the worst defensive team in the league in Fulham. Owned by 23.9% of fantasy managers, making him the 4th most highly owned. But what we do with him after this game week is the questions.
Like Weeman, Bournemouth have a run of mixed fixtures, but their choice matchups are against cellar dwellers, Newcastle and Huddersfield in GW12 and 14, but you got to ride out of the tougher fixtures against United, Arsenal and City. Owning him prevents me from a move to Hazard.
5.0 million doesn’t get you much when it comes to quality at the forward position. Just two players in the Premier League have returned points, Joselu with 2 goals and Bonatini, an assist for Wolves. However, Issac Success could be the number three forward I am looking for.
He’s one of the few Watford players who I have tapped for the watchlist. He picked up a goal for Nigeria during the last international break and made his debut start for the Hornets at Molineux last weekend. He’s featured in parts of all 9 games, with just the one start. Some rumor was mentioned on a Watford podcast, From the Rookery End that Deeney was nicked, thus the reason he didn’t travel. Just don’t know the severity.
Like adding those 4.5 midfielders, the perennial 2-pointers, Success would come in with low expectations, but allowed me an additional 1.9 ITB to spread over the midfield, which is where I am putting a majority of my budget.
So, moving Wilson, Walcott and Moura in conjunction with the 1.3 ITB I currently have, would allow me Hazard, Success and 5.6 remaining for a final midfielder.
Keep in mind I still own Fraser and James Milner at 6.0 and 5.7. Adding Success to the front line limits the ability to play any 3-man fronts, which isn’t sitting well and would force me into a 3-5-2.
The budget goes a little bit further with the likes of a Camarosa, Hojbjerg or Billing in the middle, but none are very enticing as fantasy options.
As mentioned earlier, Aguero makes the midfields moves easier, but the question remains, can you be successful without a premium forward?
(26:02) Transfer & Captain of the Week
The final segment of the week, transfer and captain. Let’s start with the captain. Based on the fact Liverpool is playing at home and against Cardiff, I plan on giving Mo Salah the armband yet again. He has yet to fail me this season. While I am still waiting for that breakout game, this could be the one.
Transfers are a bit more challenging, after going through my strategy, it looks as if Theo Walcott will be replaced this week. I need to go cheap, as well but not to the Pierre Emile Holbjerg or Philip Billing level, still considering Will Hughes at Watford to get the business done. If I can afford the extra 0.4, then I will give Gerard Deulofeu a go for the upcoming 3 games at 5.4.
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That’s it for episode 13, thanks for listening. Gameweek 9 was challenging, but lets look forward to green arrows
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Time to climb out from behind the couch and prepare for game week 10.
Thanks for listening.