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Season 2, Episode 46 of the Pitch & Pint Podcast recorded Tuesday, August 20, Don’t Panic.
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Hello and welcome to Episode 46 of the Pitch & Pint podcast, my name is Stephen and you can find me @6thGoal on Twitter.
The game week is over, and it was disappointing to say the least. For me, well, I came up 3 points short of the weekly average and continue to stare at a rank over 1 million.
The bright spot, after 2 week I am still averaging over 60 PPW, which is a key goal I set ahead of the season, so it’s not all bad.
The Monday fixture helped with the Martial goal, but that Jimenez attempt that went off the post, ooooh so close to turning my red arrow to a green one.
While some are hitting the wild card button, I am sitting with 2 FTs ahead of GW3 and looking to make some changes.
One thing I am not doing, chasing the price rises. Right? Wrong? Maybe it depends on how your starting XI looks.
I’ve got lots to get to today. Now with business out of the way, let’s get started.
Want to thank those listeners who’ve found the podcast this season.
This is the 5th podcast of the season as I close in on 50 since starting last season.
It’s been a great experience getting back into providing online content, after a long layoff and I am trying to up the production value.
In the coming week I will have a few co-hosts on the show, hopefully it will bring a different viewpoint and opinion to the topics provided.
This week was downturn, much like our FPL scores and the weekly average.
Last week it appeared every move was right and green arrows were, commonplace, however GW2 was been a very different beast.
I will look back on Watford….ugh…Hornets and their trip up the M1 to Everton.
No reason to even consider Watford assets currently, but I will keep an eye out on two, in particular.
The top 1000 managers, it’s an important group that I followed last season by using Fantasy Football Fix and feel it paid dividends during the season, I will check in on that squad and how it comes to my own.
We’ve got a new beer review, thanks in part to FPL Blade, who set me some cans from Atlanta, Georgia.
I’ll review my GW2 and look at some highs and lows and where we should look for value.
Let’s go to Goodison Park and Everton hosting Watford.
WATFORD REVIEW (02:28)
Watford is still staying, but this isthe sort of play I expected to see last season.
The Hornets, now 0-2 on the season dropping their second game to Everton, 1-0 looked better, but have yet to play to the potential we saw last year, when they started the year with 4 wins.
It’s now 9 losses in a row and 12 out of 14 dating back to the end of the 2018/19 Premier League season that doesn’t include an ass whooping in the FA Cup Final.
The team filled much needed holes during the summer transfer window adding Craig Dawson, Ismaila Sarr and Danny Welbeck.
Welbeck picked up on a free transfer has lots of incentives to break the starting XI at Watford.
Could he? I do think he could. Even with the forwards we have, Welbeck is the class of the bunch. He looked good this weekend and might displace Deeney, if Javi Gracia decided to shake up the starting XI.
At this point, I think Gracia needs to look at stemming this string of losses, putting some goals in the back of the net and turning things around with a win.
The goal against Watford was much like the first one scored in GW1, as the ball took a deflection off Dawson, as Foster hesitated just a split second and the shot from Bernard was being pick up out of the goal.
The Hornets did look better, but Capoue and Doucoure were clumsy and sloppy with their play in the central midfield, which is usually the strength of the squad.
The defense was improved, but none of the defenders were overly impressive against Everton.
There needs to be change at the back and I would honestly be open to see Adrian Mariappa and Daryl Janmaat start in place of Dawson and Kiko Femenia.
The addition of Sarr is desperately needed as Watford are going forward with no width.
Against Brighton, both Deulofeu, who started on the left and Hughes on the right wanted to cut inside.
That’s the same for Maxi Pereyra on the left, always cutting in at the top of the 18-yard box for a shot.
Sarr will stretch the defense, but give us more balls in from the left, if he does indeed get the start out there.
Pereyra, potentially moves to the right or Deulofeu shifts out to where he played for Everton and Welbeck comes in up front with Deeney.
We could even see a change in formation from a 4-2-2-2 to a 4-3-3. Not sure what Gracia will do, but something is needed.
The goal each year, get to 40 points as quick as possible, which will usually secure Premier League for the next year.
Right now, Watford is playing like a relegation candidate, even though they have quality players in the first XI and coming off the bench.
The Pozzo’s have done everything right leading to this point.
The appointment of Gracia to a 4-year contract settled the team, knowing he would be around to guide the club. While I don’t fault him, the players still seem to be in a hangover from last season.
After the game, Gracia said, “Today I am happy with the performance knowing we have many things to improve on, but there are many positives as well. I prefer to think this way knowing we’ve played only two games.”
There is lots of time remaining, but if this losing streak continues, I think ownership won’t be left with any other decision than to fire Gracia.
Watford return to Vicarage Road for game week 3 and face West Ham, who dropped their home opener, 5-0 to City and played to a 1-1 draw last week against Brighton.
The Hornets took it on the chin, 4-1 against the Hammers to close out the season.
I have no Watford assets on the FPL radar currently, which includes none of their 4.5 defenders.
I am keeping an eye on Welbeck and feel he could be come in and be the starting forward with the best consistency.
At 6.0, he is a bit highly priced, buy could be a great pick up IF he get more minutes and starts to find the back of the net.
Now with that debacle out of the way, let’s examine the top 1000 FPL managers in the game.
TOP 1000 MANAGERS (06:10)
Not sure if you caught this tweet last week from FPL Maestro, linked from a You Tuber telling his followers to “go and base their transfers on the most commonly picked #ELITE64 players and claims it is not copying.”
Maestro’s main point is “you have got to be picking your own players.”
That comment, I think we all can support, but is following the ownership numbers of the top 1k any different?
As I mentioned last week, I had just 4 players in common with the top 1k.
Based on Fantasy Fix Football and the most owned players, that number did not change for GW2, as I rolled my FT feeling I didn’t want to change any players, coming off an 84-point GW1.
While not a given, we knew GW2 was going to be a much lower average and this week my squad struggled.
I do feel fortunate to own the likes of Kane and Martial, two names bantered around ahead of last game week.
Martial already caught a price rise ahead of GW3, while Kane’s price continues to hold steady.
Honestly, I didn’t expect a return against City, but didn’t want to hokey cokey Aubameyang in for GW2, only to reintroduce Kane the following week.
It would have paid off, but felt I drafted Kane for a reason and with 8 shots on target in GW1, I felt confident.
The big number of GW2, the fact Sterling was owned by 97.6% of managers in the top 1k and 39% over all of FPL.
Salah, not as popular gaining just 41.2% in the top 1k but 45.3% across the game.
Mane’s 13-point performance in GW2 will probably cause many FPL managers to play the “Should I Drop Salah For Mane” game?
Unlike last season, managers save just £1.0 going Mane over Salah.
As of Monday, Mane had been brought in by over 182k new managers, as Salah has been moved out by nearly 203k ahead of a home game against the Gunners.
The numbers are interesting, as Salah is more popular across FPL at 45.3% owned, compared to a 41.2% share in top 1k.
The bigger disparity is with Sterling, just 39% ownership across FPL, nearly a 60% difference compared to the top 1k.
When we look player combinations Sterling and KDB are owned by 15% ownership in the top 1k, but just 3.3% across FPL.
Sterling and Salah more then double the ownership at 39.2% in the top 1k and 18% across FPL.
Does a 39% stake mean we should have both Sterling and Salah to keep pace this season?
KDB outscored his City counterpart this week 11 points, compared 6 for Sterling.
It’s returns in both games, for both players, as Sterling is now on 26 points, while KDB is on 18.
As it looks now, Kane, Sterling and Salah are how a majority of the top 1k owners are running.
It’s now 2 goals in 2 games that Liverpool have conceded, something their defense didn’t do early last season, notching 4 clean sheets in 6 games to start the season.
Alexander-Arnold is owned by 19.4% and Robertson, just 10.3% over the top 1k, but it’s Virgil van Dijk owned by a whopping 67.3% of managers, far eclipsing the attacking wing backs, for a £0.5 savings.
Many managers are moving away from the Reds defense that now has Adrian in goal and to be honest, haven’t looked like the defense we saw last season.
Partially because of the loss of Alisson, but the defense doesn’t look as resolute as they did last season.
These two early games should have been clean sheets, a newly promoted team in Norwich and a less then average team in So’ton.
Many managers are going a different direction have brought in Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who was the second highest owned defender at 54.8% behind van Dijk
That said, it’s £4.1, John Lundstram of Sheffield United up 236k owners, on the back of a goal and clean sheet for 14 points last week, as the most bought defender.
At that price, he’s bench fodder for me, I decided not to start the season with him, but I don’t think I will be buying in on him, feel it’s a wasted transfer on a defender I won’t play weekly.
Still he appears to be the early candidate at that sub 4.5 price range putting up good returns.
As managers continue to move away from Liverpool’s high-priced defenders, Robertson and TAA to Lundstram at a 3.0 million savings, if you caught it before Lundstram’s price rise.
There are MANY options when you look at 3.0 ITB to upgrade your midfield or forward lines.
The Monday fixture showcased Anthony Martial, who picked up his second goal of the season, at £7.5, he’s on the short list to increase in price again, as he’s gained 195k new mangers.
I feel the top 1k is a worthwhile to monitor this group of players for trends in ownership.
Decisions being made are mine and not that of the top 1k.
However, if you can maintain the weekly average of the top 1k, you will have an excellent season.
Stats don’t always tell the full story, just like relying on xG, which now stands for expected gulps.
That means it’s time to review a coconut porter before we get into the FPL darkness that was GW2.
BEER REVIEW – Cherry Street Brewing | Coconut Porter (11:37)
Before I get into this week’s beer review, I want to take moment to say thanks to Ben, on Twitter as @FPL_Blade, supporter of Sheffield United.
He was kind enough to send me a great, diverse offering from the Atlanta, Georgia area.
Never have found or had any beer from here, so I look forward to popping these cans, providing reviews on the Pitch & Pint Podcast, as well as on my 30 Second Beer Reviews.
I am currently in the processes of putting a box of beer together that will include some nice West Coast IPAs and doubles, which could include Russian River, Revision, Mike Hess, Barley Forge and Knee Deep or whatever else looks interesting when I head to the beer cave.
Today’s offering is one I have had before, as Ben sent me two cans of this Cherry Street Brewing Cooperative coconut porter out of Cummings, GA, a brewery that has been in business since 2009, celebrating their anniversary in June of this year.
“It’ll be a 10-year anniversary of [opening in] Forsyth County, which has been unbelievably gracious and great to us in more ways than you can possibly imagine,” he said. “The people out here, the community and everything has been beyond our wildest dreams, said Rick Tanner.
There is a common theme through the cooperative, that being family, which should be expected in a family-owned business, but one that also extends to the customers who feel this is “their bar.”
Since opening, the co-op’s restaurant and taproom have become popular gathering spots in Forsyth County, and owners of the company said it brings in so many customers that just about every night is a little different.
“You know when you’ve made it when the people here in the community consider this their brewery,” added Mike “CT” Chartrand, a partner with the company. “This is the community’s brewery.”
In 2009, at the then-recently opened Vickery Village, restaurateur Rick Tanner opened up Rick Tanner’s Grille and Bar, the 20th eatery under the name with CT since 1986, but since then, the restaurant has pivoted into something unlike any of its predecessors in term of name, product and the fact that he his running it with his son and daughter, Nick and Alisa.
Tanner proudly refers to them as “the kids.”
“My daughter started working here while she was at Georgia State [University] and graduated from college for hospitality from the Mack School of business, then she comes and takes over operations, Nick’s got the brewery and Mike and I are hanging out here having fun,” the elder Tanner said.
Before opening the local restaurant, the family’s first plan was to purchase a brewery in Colorado, where Nick had fallen in love with home brewing beer while attending Colorado State University in Fort Collins.
When that didn’t work out, Rick decided on the current space and offered Nick a deal, “Double our sales, and we’ll build you a brewery.” Before brewing his own beer, Nick first wanted to make the restaurant a destination for already popular beers.
Cherry Street opened on December 12, 2012 or 12/12/12 with four beers on tap, by summer of 2013, that number had grown to 12 different beers.
The restaurant expanded and The Taproom was added, which has 26 full time beers on tap.
“The Taproom took on a life of its own being a space where adults could get away from the kids that our restaurant has been known for…now there’s an adult space.”
Today’s its Cherry Street’s Coconut Porter, a 6% American porter.
Now, I am no expert when it comes to beer, always learning and trying new beers.
Maybe one day I will wear the title of Cicerone, but for now, the porter is a still I am still learning.
Inspired by the storied English Porter, the American Porter tends to make its own rules.
With plenty of innovation and originality brewers in the US have taken this style to a new level, whether it’s highly hopping the brew or adding coffee or chocolate to complement the highly roasted and burnt flavor associated with this type of beer.
Some are even barrel aged in bourbon or whiskey barrels.
The color could be medium brown to inky black and the range of hop bitterness is also quite wide, but most are balanced.
And quite a few easy drinking session Porters can be found as well.
Ranked #34 in the style of American Porter, Cherry Street delivers a well balanced and easy drinking beer.
Let’s pop the top on this 16 oz can of Coconut Porter.
This beer pours a dark and opaque cola brown with a full one finger mocha colored head and reduces to a wispy veil, leaving no visible lacing.
The smell…it’s a light baker’s cocoa with some roasted malts, some dark fruits and some faint vanilla and coconut.
Let’s see how it goes down…it’s smooth with a light body over the palette with a hint of carbonation but creamy mouthfeel.
A burnt, dark coffee flavor, hints of roasted malts with more noticeable vanilla and coconut in the taste, then on the nose. Finishes dry with a lingering bitterness.
Overall this easy drinking American porter is better then some of the other porters I’ve had, which isn’t manyhad, including Deschutes, Black Butte Porter, which was fucking awful.
The Shake Chocolate Porter from Boulder Beer Company, which was decent, but nothing to write home about, the Coconut Hiwa Porter from Maui Brewing and the Porter from Founders.
None of those were all that impressive, which makes this Cherry Street offering, the best of the bunch that I have had.
Thanks again to FPL Blade for the box of beer.
Now let’s get back to the FPL discussion.
BEER NEWS – FPL BEER CLUB LEAGUE (17:01)
We all love out mini leagues. Last year, the Beer Club saw @PadFul win the league, holding off some good FPL managers.
This year the mini league is back with 31 teams participating, including the ever so elusive FPL Beer Mule!
Let’s look at the top 5 teams after 2 game weeks.
30 points separated the top and bottom scorers this week, as the FPL Beer Mule took top honors with 60 points! At the opposite end, it was Haller If Ya Hya Mee finished well below the weekly average on 30 points.
The top 5 spots as they stand after 2 weeks, in 5th, Mark Turner with 144 points, Victims of VAR.
Moving up to 4th place, on 145 points, Finnbogi Rafn Jonsson, with Rækjurnar.
Third place with 153 points, Anderw Hepburn and Team.
Richard Young retains the 2nd spot on 156 points with RTY9A.
At the top of the pile, Stu Lord, banging away on 163 points Gylfi Pleasures.
It’s a box of beer up for grab! Should be very competitive after these first few weeks, as things start to settle down.
LOOK BACK, GOING FOWARD (18:18)
While we won’t have numbers until the end of GW3, but last season, Twitter is seeing some managers “getting wild” ahead of this weekend.
Last year, at this same time, I made a rash decision to activate my first wild card, one that failed initially.
Over a 10-week period, I feel it was a good use of the card and I did benefit from the players I added, but after the end of the season, there were a few I should have kept for the season, including Christian Eriksen and David Luiz.
I don’t want to get caught up in the Twitter frenzy of FPL managers voraciously hitting the wild card this week on the back of some impressive performances and price rises.
Looking at my starting lineup, I ask the question, where do I need to make changes?
Through 2 game weeks, things haven’t gone according to the FPL script, then again, I think that went out of the window with Liverpool conceding in both games with poor attacking numbers, that’s seen MANY mangers move away from the Reds defensive assets.
I refer to the top 1k mangers and the ownership numbers and players I currently have in my starting XI.
Those players include Kane, Salah and van Dijk with Dendoncker getting and honorable mention, on the bench.
However, the number that continues to impress me, 97.6% ownership of Sterling! A player I didn’t own last year and I could potentially buy in this year, giving me a double City attack in midfield.
The obvious immediately sticks out, as John Stones has a thigh injury and is flagged, potentially out a week to 10 days.
He’s got a 75% chance to play, so it might be worthwhile holding him and I do want to hold a City defender as they have 4 good fixtures upcoming
Joe Gomez missed out in GW2, as Joel Matip starte, what happens when the Gooners visit Anfield? Do we see Gomez or Matip? Does he play wide in place of TAA? Benched? We don’t know.
It was a viable punt in GW1, but the lack of clean sheets in 2 weeks isn’t giving me that warm, fuzzy feeling.
The other question mark is in the midfield, that of Ryan Fraser.
Bournemouth hasn’t started off well, just 2 goals in their first 2 games, but no returns for Weeman, to the tune, he’s already lost 0.5.
Many mangers moved off the Cherries midfielder for Martial before he increased 0.1.
So, can I justify a wild card?
Looking at ownership numbers I could and potentially benefit from the wild card.
Realistically, I’ve got 4 players I don’t want to move and 2 FTs sitting in my back pocket.
Would a -4 or -8 hit be more advisable?
If I were to activate the wild card, it would be a repeat of what I did last season, using the WC ahead of GW3 and losing 2 FTs.
So based on my squad, rolling the FT, I am undecided as of this recording. Even with price increases on Tuesday, I would still be able to fund the wild card.
Coming off an 84-point GW1 and 38 points in GW2, I am still running with a weekly average score of 61 points, which was my goal for the season.
That’s a sound average to build on with hitting weekly captain options and before activating the other chips.
At this point, I am not chasing price rises, but trying to use the information we know from 2 games to look ahead for the next 4 games weeks with the international break planned after GW4.
As I stated ahead of the season, I have no concrete plans or time frame when I activate the wild card.
The core of my starting XI is still strong, minus the fact I don’t own Sterling or Mane going forward.
One of the big arguments we see constantly for those looking to wild card now, it’s been 2 games.
Just how much do we know?
There have been some excellent performances by budget players through 2 game weeks.
Mat Ryan, John Lundstram, Erik Pieters, Lewis Dunk, Wilfried N’Didi, Dani Ceballos, Todd Cantwell, to go along with Teemu Pukki and Ashley Barnes.
I recall an article called The Laws of Fantasy Football Averages and wrote about it on 6thgoal.com, “Barring injury, there will be a common average a player will usually hover around in terms of the amount of fantasy points he should score each week.
If a player is failing to meet his average production, it stands to reason that if his projection was realistic in the first place, the player will have to have weeks where he exceeds his average to even the discrepancy out.
It also applies in reverse to players who are exceeding their average; they’ll have to have weeks where they fall short of their projected average.
It’s hardly an extreme idea and if you recognize it, it can help you in making sure you’re smart in your fantasy football management skills
Even with price rises coming, I still have time to pull the trigger on big changes in my starting XI or use both free transfers.
Let’s look back on my GW2 results.
GAMEWEEK 2 REVIEW (23:15)
After smashing GW1, we had to take a realistic look at GW2, knowing 84 points wasn’t going to be the norm.
Looking at fixtures, I knew I was going to have a tough time with City hosting Spurs and Wolves hosting United.
I did have strong convictions Liverpool would keep it clean against So’ton. That didn’t happen.
Those three games defined the weekend for me and possibly many FPL managers.
Ahead of GW2, I made the decision not to use my FT and roll it, running out the same starting XI I had in GW1.
Not a bad decision, but well below that 60 PPW average I am shooting for.
I’ve said it before and I stick by it, play a consistent brand of FPL and you have a great chance at being successful.
Big attacking returns are awesome, but more importantly, don’t take it on the chin with very poor weeks, where you fall very short of the game week average.
Again, I point to running with the top 1000 managers.
If you can average what they score weekly, you SHOULD, and I emphasize should gain in the OR weekly.
In my GW starting XI article on 6thgoal.com, I tabbed 58 points as the low end of success this week.
I fell 20 points short of that total, finishing on just 38 points.
The weekend could have been just a bit more had that Raul Jimenez shot found the back the net instead of the goal post.
Thankfully Martial did pick up his second goal but lost out on bonus points that saw me finish on just 38 points, 3 points short of the weekly average of 41.
By way of comparison, the top 1k finished with a 43-point average on the week.
Building this squad ahead of the season, it was one that would live and die by defensive returns, as in clean sheets.
Well, no clean sheets fueled a shit filled week, picking up just 6 points, that saw Joe Gomez on the bench and John Stones pull up like a lame duck.
Thankfully Pope pulled his weight and got a save bonus point, still a shitty defensive return.
KDB continues to sparkle in the midfield at 9.5, posting 2 assists and 3 bonus points. Such a class player, I don’t plan on moving him. Looking in form so far.
Mo Salah was my captain, played 78 minutes, got a clean sheet, for what that is worth and finished on 6, as I experienced my first captain failure.
Martial, as mentioned before hit for a goal, should have been two, but another solid 7-point return.
Fraser and Dendoncker had no returns, as didn’t Kane or Jimenez, three of those 4 players I expected no returns on.
As I mentioned previously, activating the wild card is not out of the question. Any moves I make will leave me with well over 1.0 million in the bank and give me 4 premiums, that includes KDB on attack.
It’s not a decision I will not rush to make, most likely holding it until Thursday.
Received a question from K_T_K @satsuma_otoko on Twitter.
Who would you use a FT on – Perez, Fraser or Jota?
BTW, liked the Statler & Waldorf references in last week’s pod.
Thanks, KTK. I think Statler and Waldorf might become regulars on the pod.
As for your question, I currently own Fraser, he’s already lost 0.1 and has not been able to deliver in the first two games and now faces at the Vitality.
Not high on the fixture, but the Cherries do have a favorable run from GW4 to GW9 with the 4th best FDR facing just ARS in GW8 at the Emirates.
Fraser is third (13) in crosses, creating 3 chances and has 34 passes in the final third, but I feel he is missing David Brooks, who’s got an ankle injury, not due back until October.
Many FPL managers were high on Ayoze Perez, he was usually compared with Tielemans and Maddison, at 0.5 higher as the Leicester City asset to own.
However, a very slow start for Perez and he appears to have that 5 o’clock FPL shadow as managers.
Currently owned by 12.9% of managers, he’s looking to drop, in the next few days and the Foxes schedule is mixed having to go to United and Liverpool, along with Spurs at home.
That leaves Diogo Jota. Now I was high on him prior to the season and had him locked in as my 6.5 forward of choice.
Not an ideal one though, due to the fact of Europa League involvement.
He’s been substituted at 75 and 85 minutes in the first two games and has yet to post a return, much like his strike partner, Raul Jimenez.
Jota, like Perez is close to a drop, maybe ahead of GW3 and Wolves have a mixed run through GW8.
If I had to select between these 3, then I run out Jota, but I have been looking in a different direction.
Mason Mount has been highly impressive at 6.0. He’s hungry, possesses some good fixture, is explosive, picked up his first goal in GW2 and Lampard likes him, as he played under him at Derby last season.
Outside of GW6 and a meeting with Liverpool, Chelsea have an excellent run through GW12.
He would save me potentially 1.4 to redistribute in my squad.
Thanks again KTK for the question. If you have any FPL or beer related questions, feel free to hit me on Twitter @6thGoal
<queue Spanish Flea>
That’s it for Episode 46, thanks for listening.
I know I am not the only FPL manager looking to rebound, me position in my mini leagues don’t tell the entire story.
While GW2 was subpar, I am still above a weekly average of 61 PPW, maybe I am looking for that “silver lining” to hang my hat on in order to move forward.
We’ve all got decisions to make. Be it how to use 2 free transfers or maybe you want to wild card.
Do what you feel will most benefit your squad.
Ahead of the season I had no set timeframe to activate my wild card, but this season is very reminiscent of last season, after 2 weeks for me.
If it plays out in similar fashion, then I will be activating that wild card in anticipation of a pay off over the next 10 weeks.
I want to take one quick moment to thank Brandon and Josh at Always Cheating, as they received a special gift from the mailman.
It was the batch of home brew I made, called Nuno’s Bearded Stout, I had hoped to get it to them before the season started, but honestly, I was a bit of a lazy fuck.
If you missed it, you can catch Brandon wax poetic on a 30 second beer review of his own.
I think he mentioned nice head and cold in his review.
You can check out link included in the show notes.
Spot on Brandon. Want to thank you and Josh for taking the time to give it a shout. Cheers!
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Thanks for listening to The Pitch & Pint Podcast, FPL from inside the six.