VAPM – Viable Transfers?

The last two years I’ve dug deeper into some key metrics to help with player decisions. This is one of many different metrics to us when when contemplating players of interest. This year, I’ve paid more attention to deficiencies in past seasons. It doesn’t come as a surprise that my midfielders are excelling when it comes to their point totals in relation to their price and minutes played. It’s a plethora of acronyms; PP90, PPM, PPMM and VAPM, as managers look for keys in the numbers to unlock their season.

I’ve continued to follow and promote VAPM or ‘value added per million, which is calculated by taking the price per million (PPM), subtracting two points (just for appearing), then divided by price.  Posted HappyGrinch on Reddit, “…by deducting 2 points from PPM, we eliminate the effect of points earned by simply existing on the pitch for 60 minutes. This also diminishes the value of substitutes who score 1 point for a cameo. Therefore, VAPM allows for a meaningful comparison between any two players.” You can read the entire VAPM topic.

Unlike last season, which saw my defense put on a commanding performance all season long, this year many managers have been lost without he clean sheets of Liverpool and Manchester City, two clubs many FPL managers were banking on for points. For me, defense is more then the attacking potential carried by a wing back, such as Trent Alexander-Arnold, Robertson, Lucas Digne and other players cut from this mold.

SUCCESS IN THE STATISTICS

Ahead of this season I wrote an article on 6thgoal.com titled, Success in the Statistics, which discussed starting strong, key metrics, The Law of Fantasy Football Averages and conclusions I could draw from my research. The results were far from scientific, but feel gave me a good overview when it comes to VAPM and a figure I should shoot for, in order for my team to be successful. Using 2300 points as my final score, I calculated a VAPM of 0.35 for each player, over the season to achieve this score, which didn’t take into account captain points, wild cards or chips.

VAPM – VIABLE?

Listed below are the VAPM for each of the 15 players on my squad, along with a few selected players (italics), based on total points for the season.

FORWARDS
Abraham 1.06
Pukki 0.93
Haller 0.46
Wilson 0.64

Firmino 0.65
Aubameyang 0.48
Aguero 0.75

MIDFIELDERS
Salah 0.52
Steling 0.48
KDB 0.89
Mount 0.54
Cantwell 0.59

Mane 0.59
B Silva 0.89
D Silva 0.80
Mahrez 0.97
McGinn 0.54
Richarlison 0.42
Son 0.54

DEFENDERS
Wan-Bissaka 0.18
Keane 0.18
Zinchenko 0.22
Lundstram 0.83
Kelly 0.52

TAA 0.45
Vestergaard 0.51
Pieters 0.53
Pereira 0.39
Schar 0.49
Robertson 0.33
Stevens 0.43
PvA 0.36
Digne 0.35
Otamendi 0.57
Diop 0.44

GOALKEEPERS
Pope 0.43
Button N/A

Fabianski 0.63
de Gea 0.42
Gunn 0.48
Henderson 0.44

Now, I can play the “what if” game all day and the numbers from FPL Statistico back it, there is a major drop off when it comes defensive points. John Lundstram and Martin Kelly are my only defenders posting a VAPM over 0.35 this season, but both were bench players. Looking forward, it’s about moving out  AWB, Keane and Zinchenko as their VAPM have been dismal this season.

As I look over the options, on the surface Nicolás Otamendi, Çaglar Söyüncü and Fikayo Tomori are the players I’ve got interest in. Checking FDR,  Chelsea has the best run over the next 6 weeks followed by Man City and Leicester City. All three defenders are viable or are they?

Tomori (£4.5) has score 10 points in 270 minutes of play, starting the last three games, scoring one goal. To meet or exceed the VAPM of 0.35, he would need to score a minimum of 11 points over the next three games to give him a VAPM of 0.37. That equates to 3.7 PPM.

Söyüncü (£4.6) has played every minute (540) of the first six games scoring a goal and clean sheet for 19 points. To hit the target of 0.35, he’d need to score between 11-12 points over a three game stretch.

Otamendi (£5.5) would be direct replacement (based on cost) for the three defenders I want to rid my team of. He had a worldly game against Waford that’s given him a goal, assist and two clean sheets on the season for 24 points in 422 minutes of play, as he missed the first game of the season and 62 minutes at Watford. Otamendi would nee 12 points over three games to give him a VAPM of 0.40.

Could these points totals and the VAPM metric help when speculating points for an upcoming run of fixtures? I believe it could.  Using Tomori as our example, let’s say he plays 90 minutes in the next three games, that’s 6 points, which means he needs just 5 more points over that stretch to hit his VAPM target. That is one clean sheet over the next three, as Chelsea play BHA/sou/NEW or  bonus points.

CONCLUSION

This metric may or may not work for you. I’ve started including it when looking at transfer over a select period of games. This planning has reduced the number of viable players I consider when I a free transfer to use. For future planning, I’ve been looking at a minimum period of three to five game weeks. Any planning past that period, I can recalculate player VAPM and points needed to reach that golden number of 0.35.

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