VAPM Update: GW5

It will probably require much of the season to see if crunching the numbers in order to generate a baseline figure for VAPM will provide any advantage during the FPL season. This year, more than the previous two seasons, I’ve started using the ‘value added per million’ (VAPM) of 0.35 as a baseline for players in my squad. By no means will it guarantee a successful season, but it’s my hope that using this data in order to get a number to base player decisions around could improve the “total immediate points gained from transfers” as tracked using FPL Statistico.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

This week the updated VAPM numbers are presented through GW5 with an additional column indicating the previous period of play. Since there was no reason to track these numbers before game week four, I now include a running total so FPL managers can see if their target player is increasing or decreasing based on VAPM.

Players without any previous data are new and will be tracked from the current point on through the season. There are also players who have been excluded from the list because they don’t meet the minimum standards of 180 minutes played and 4 points scored. For GW1-4, I did not include any players with a negative VAPM, so there could be some bigger named players not year included because their current VAPM hasn’t not climbed to a positive figure.

VAPM THROUGH GW5

Looking over the data this week, is it any surprise that Max Kilman (4.1) has suddenly become a hot transfer target after Wolves posted a CS against Leeds, 1.0. Kilman has already seen a 0.1 price increase and currently, 6.5% of FPL managers previously owning Reece James, Jimmy Dunne and Tyrick Mitchell have moved to the Wolves defender. Will he start? There is a good possibility, but can’t rule out Fernanado Marcal, who picked up a minute in GW5, after not being included in the squad the previous two weeks. That means Romain Saiss could move back in the center, with Marcal going back out to the left. I won’t put much into Kilman’s numbers, as he just meets the minimum criteria to make the list.

Before diving in on Chelsea assets I need to see more as their players continue to gain health and fitness, returning to the starting XI. Edouard Mendy missed GW5 due to injury, which put Kepa back in goal. Needless to say, he conceded three goals to a very below average Southampton attack. Defensively that is a concern, but with clean sheets down (22) from last season (23) by one, defenders should be judged more on their ability to go forward.

Ben Chilwell (5.7) started the season injured for the Blues, but has back to back assists in the last two game weeks and has made his arrival known. At 5.7M he is a bit expensive, given Chelsea has a single CS on the season. While he missed three games, he’s be active going forward providing 16 crosses, 7 chances created and two assists.

If Chilwell’s price is too restrictive and not taking fixtures into consideration, maybe Aaron Cresswell (5.0) is your defender. Currently third in the league with 33 crosses, 14 successful and 12 chances created (2 BCC) and 2 assists. The Hammers wing back is in great form and has a 0.76 VAPM to back his play. Yet, we can make the argument that this season is about budget defenders with none of the perennial favorites impressing it’s the pairing of Tyrone Mings  (5.1) and Konsa Ngoyo (4.6) that have shot to the top of the league behind three clean sheets from Villa. they carry the best defensive VAPM figures for defenders who have played 360 mintues or more. Not that Mings is “budget” but Villa have backed their play and have great fixtures through December.

The midfield appears to have some template forming players in jack Grealish (7.2), Heung-min Son (9.3), James Rodriguez (8.0) and Mo Salah (12.3). However, all those midfielders are being out played using VAPM by Jorginho (5.2) who scored a brace form the spot the two weeks ago, but also added his second assist against the Saints last week. That said, the Chelsea mid should be labelled, “proceed with caution” as we don’t know how Fat Frank is going to use him when all his midfielders are healthy. His value is from the penalty spot.

Grealish, on the back of his Liverpool performance is still riding high with a 1.04 VAPM, which is down from the week before. I do feel he is the Villa attacker to back going forward. Son and Harry Kane continue to shine for Spurs, as the South Korean has nine returns (1.03 VAPM) on the season and continues to be one of the best attacking players right now after gaining nearly 1.9M new owners last game week. No reason to think that ownership number won’t climb ahead of bur/BHA/wba.

While John McGinn’s VAPM (0.86) is higher than that of Rodriguez, ownership (67.3% in top 1k) and transfer statistics (+203k) tell me to back the Columbian. Now with Richarilson out we could more scoring opportunity for the midfielder, however McGinn  could make a strong case as a fifth midfielder priced at 5.5. While all these midfielders did take a slight dip in their VAPM numbers, it was Wilfried Zaha with a goal who saw his VAPM increase to 0.69 on the season. At 7.2, the Palace midfielder has scored four goals on the season, as they hit a purple patch.  Ownership numbers are a bit low, 19.2% across the game and 18.4% in the top 1k. Finally, for me Mo is being Mo, as he continues to provide and score points (48), even at 12.3 his ownership continues to climb and his VAPM remains consistent at 0.62.

Up front FPL manager aren’t looking much past Dominic Calvert-Lewin (7.7) and Kane (10.7) as the pair have combined for 12 goals and 7 assists on the team. Kane has a slight VAPM advantage (0.93) over DCL (0.86) but the Everton front man has been more consistent. The ownership numbers are quite staggering, as DLC is owned by 50.3% across FPL and 50% in the top 1k. However the top 1k managers feel Kane (79%) is more valuable, even priced 3.0M more. If you subscribe to the top 1k ownership numbers, then Kane is a must own after this last game week.

CONCLUSION

There are 73 players I have highlighted by position that are viable transfers.  The remainder of the list, while including popular and premium players could be an option. A few of those players include Raul Jimenez, who picked up his third goal in GW5. KDB isn’t listed because of his injury and the face he has dipped below that 0.35 VAPM. If healthy, I have no doubt he will top the position for VAPM by the end of the year. Willian, after his first game has crashed back to reality, dropping in price and falling below the VAPM baseline (0.30).

I provide the information, you can decide what you want to do with it. Use it. Ignore it. Cross reference it. For me, I am using it as a tool to cross reference players who finished above 0.35 VAPM last season and those who appear to be on a similar track this season. While we figure that those players who have performed in the past will continue to do so, there is some question about those who have started fast, McGinn for example. Or that of Ollie Watkins, who’s returned in just one game to start the season.

Any questions or comments, please let me know.

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