Captain’s Armband

Through 27 game weeks I have been sorely disappointed in my overall performance as an EPL fantasy manager. Much like fantasy (NFL) football, which I have participated in for 36 years, luck always plays a factor. This season luck has not been on my side, struggling through most weeks as I continue to look to turn my season around with just 11 weeks remaining. Initially I cited a single point during the season, which I transferred out Alexis Sanchez and felt as if that move cost me the season. After looking at the data and presenting it in the Sanchez Effect, last week, Sanchez has only earned an addition 59 points through 27 weeks an average of just 2.1 points/week. Not really what I expected. figuring the total would have been greater, I looked elsewhere to bottom line why my squad is doing poorly.

This week I turn my attention towards the captain’s armband, which is given to a player each week and doubles their point total. This decision has led to many average weeks being turned into great weeks. But how have I fared over 27 game weeks? Let’s check the numbers against who was  selected as captain and vice-captain and who were the recommended captain choices based on a poll totals from two different fantasy football sites I frequent.

When the numbers are viewed in a spreadsheet format the results provide a telling story that doesn’t really favor my decision on who to give the armband to. In 13 out of 27 weeks (48.1%) I owned and started the player who was recommend in website captain polls (WWW1 & WWW2). There were 5 weeks (18.5%) I owned the player selected in the website polls but selected a different player to captain. In just 9 weeks (33.3%) I didn’t own the poll captain selection with 6 of those weeks taking place since GW20.

In those 9 weeks if I would have owned the poll selected captain I would have scored an additional 80 points. It doesn’t come as a surprise that Alexis Sanchez accounted for 44 points. Sergio Aguero accounted for 30 points, while Harry Kane just 6 points. What this doesn’t take into account are players who had good weeks but weren’t tapped as the top poll captain selection or one of the Dream Team players for the week.

I believe what this chart tells me is that along with having poor luck this season, my decision making has been terrible. I look back on the season and ask myself, “Why did I start <insert player>?” Reading through my weekly Premier League Retrospect articles provides an insight I didn’t have last year. Some of the decisions were based on budget, while others were based on form and fixtures of players selected. This doesn’t come as a surprise but unlike last year I have not been able to establish any sort of consistency or even put together a 5-7 week run of green arrows. GW4 through GW6 has been the best run I’ve had all season, returns of 56, 69 and 69. GW2 and GW7 are the only times my final score exceeded 70 points with 72 and 78 respectively. It’s just been a difficult year. The last finger I can point before point it towards me would be examining defensive units, as we recall a clean sheet was hard to come by early in the season, which cost many manger points.

Premier League: The Sanchez Effect

Can a single player make or break your fantasy EPL season? While there isn’t a correct answer, I bring forth evidence in the case of Alexis Sanchez, carrying 187 points into GW28, leading all other player in fantasy football this season. With Copa América Centenario hosted in the United States for the first time, Chile saw their way through to defeat Argentina in the final on June 26. The EPL season kicked off on August 13 with international players returning from summer duties fatigued. Sanchez started the new season off slow with just 1 goal in his first 4 games and a knock after the 2-1 victory over So’ton in GW4.

Going through 27 weeks of statistics I did not start the season with Sanchez, opting for the big price tags of last year’s superstars, Riyad Mahrez (240 pts) and Dimitri Payet (171 pts), partnered with Dusan Tadic and EPL newcomer, Gastón Ramírez. N’Golo Kanté rounded out my midfield, starting on the bench after be categorized as a midfielder, from a defender last year at Leicester.

Sanchez: GW1 thru GW6 = 46 points

Sanchez GW7 thru GW11 = 26 points *

Sanchez WG12 thru GW14 = 38 points*

Sanchez GW15 thru GW20 = 33 points *

Sanchez GW21 thru GW25 = 40 points

Sanchez GW26 thru GW27 = 4 points (GW26 blank)

TOTAL 187 POINTS (* indicates player owned)

Returns were few and far between to start the season. Mahrez appeared to be starting where he left off last year with 8 points in GW1 but just 1 assist would follow over the next 9 game weeks. His tenure was short lived. Payet quickly picked up a knock after just 24 minutes and missed the next 2 game weeks, he too was transferred out. The combination of Tadic, Hazard and De Bruyne would only account for 20 points through GW6, while Sanchez would more than double that output with 46 points through the same period. In GW3, GW5 and GW6 Sanchez would record double digit returns of 16, 10 and 14 points (4 goals/3 assists). I had been a casualty of “The Sanchez Effect.”

Interestingly enough, at the conclusion of GW6 my global ranking was 29k! The highest I have recorded in nearly 4 years of playing fantasy EPL. So, did I miss his contribution? In some respect, I did. Total at the end of GW6 was 356 points or 59.3, just 0.7 short of my goal of 60 points/week. To start the season Sanchez scored 46 points through GW6, a difference of 26 points when compared to the three pronged attack of Tadic, Hazard and De Bruyne.

  • Tadic GW1 thru GW3 = 7 points *
  • Hazard GW4 thru GW5 = 3 points *
  • De Bruyne: GW6 = 10 points *

Those additional 26 points would put me at 382 points through GW6 (avg 63.6/points/week) and in a much stronger position two weeks after activating my WC. It wasn’t until GW7 that I introduced Sanchez to my starting XI. Not surprisingly, he fell out of form, with just a single double digit return in GW10 (13 pts.) against Sunderland.

The only period in which not owning Sanchez worked in my favor was introducing Sadio Mane for GW26 and GW27. Then again Arsenal didn’t play in GW26 and Sanchez was benched to start the match against Liverpool in GW27. You can track Sanchez in the list below.

Starting XI – Go ‘Orns

Tadic GW1 thru GW3 = 7 points *

Hazard GW4 thru GW5 = 3 points *

De Bruyne: GW6 = 10 points *

TOTAL = 20 POINTS (difference of 26 points)

Sanchez GW7 thru GW11 = 26 points *

Hazard GW12 thru GW14 = 15 points *

TOTAL 15 POINTS (difference of 23 points)

Sanchez GW15 thru GW20 = 33 points *

Ozil GW21 thru GW25 = 19 points  *

TOTAL = 19 POINTS (difference of 21 points)

Mane GW26 thru GW27 = 15 points *

TOTAL 15 POINTS (difference of -11 points)

TOTAL DIFFERENCE 59 POINTS (1249/1343)

GLOBAL RANKING: 1418120 794860 = 623260

Sanchez has been a key player for many this season, seen as a de facto captain on a weekly basis. Part of why I moved Sanchez was the lack of returns when I gave him the armband, it became frustrating week in, week out to see single digit returns. Many of the game weeks in which I owned Sanchez I missed out on the double digit returns, always questioning myself when it came to him.

Now 59 points through GW27 isn’t much. It would still put me behind of where I was last year at this time. 59 points is the difference between being ranked at 1.4m and 796k, a difference of 623k. One can